2008 Hurricane Forecast

Last week, hurricane experts from Colorado State University updated their 2008 hurricane forecast to add two more storms than predicted in the original storm outlook. There is now predicted to be a total of 17 storms for the 2008 season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

Hurricane experts Philip Klotzbach and William Gray now call for nine of the 17 named storms to become hurricanes with five to turn into major hurricanes. A major hurricane is defined as being a category 3 or higher. Overall, researchers predict an above average season.

The announcement came just as Tropical Storm Edouard carried heavy rains and strong winds in an area stretching from southwest Louisiana to the upper Texas coast. Edouard was just below hurricane strength when it made landfall.

Tropical storms, by definition, are storms with winds at least 39 mph. When this happens, the system is considered tropical and gets tagged with a name. Once winds reach 74 mph, the storm is upgraded to a hurricane in the Atlantic; a cyclone in the Indian Ocean; and a typhoon in parts of the Pacific.

The new forecast raises the prediction made in June, which had 15 named storms, including eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

The new forecast was made after the forecast team began seeing warmer sea-surface temperatures and low sea-level pressures over the Atlantic in June and July.

Klotzbach and Gray also continued to warn of the higher-than-average possibility that at least one strong hurricane will make landfall in the United States this year.

Below is the breakdown of the probability and where a storm could make landfall this hurricane season.

- 67 percent – somewhere along the U.S. coastline
- 43 percent – along the U.S. east coast, including the Florida peninsula
- 42 percent – along the Gulf Coast from Florida to Brownsville, Tex.

This is Colorado State team's 25th year of issuing early August forecasts. The team has correctly predicted an above- or below-average season=2 0in 21 of 24 years for named storms and 17 of 24 years for hurricanes in their early August forecasts. We can only hope that this year they are wrong.

Back 08.11.2008.

Hurricane News

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